Announcing the Alavan Independent Facebook page

The political risk analysis part of Alavan is in the process of going through some changes this year in terms of the way in which our service is delivered. These will be rolled out in the coming weeks when we shall be writing and speaking direct to clients.

One early step has occurred today, ie the creation of an ‘Alavan Independent’ Facebook page, which will, from here on, be where we post on political and geopolitical issues as far as social media are concerned.

The page will concentrate on brief and speedy comment on topical happenings – and how they are reported in the mainstream media. It goes without saying that comment on and discussion of such events is greatly welcomed.
So, if you are interested in seeing/continuing to see the sort of political commentary we have to date been posting on Alastair’s personal page, please sign up to follow Alavan Independent.

https://web.facebook.com/Alavan-Independent-312709959372416/?modal=admin_todo_tour

 

Outlook 2019: Issues which keep me awake at night

On 6 January The Global Lead published an article focusing on Alastair’s top five political risks for 2019
 

Donald Trump: Doubling Down Dangerously

On 28 November, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair looking at Trump-derived political risk between now and the 2020 elections in the US with special reference to China/US relations (including trade) and Iran/oil.
 
 
 

Addressing Malnutrition in Zambia

Malnutrition, in particular vitamin A deficiency, is very high in Zambia; reported to be 40-50% in the under 5 yr olds. Although several steps have been taken to addressing this, the figures illustrate very slow progress. 

I introduced a small, simple trial project within our local community; orange maize, a vitamin A rich crop. It has been a success and I have plans to extend it to poor rural communities, where subsistence farming is the way of life.

Attached is an outline of the project and my plan.

Orange Maize Project, Nov ’18

‘Local’ elections which matter

WHO is this?Alastair’s two most recent articles for ‘The Global Lead’ both focus on upcoming ‘local’ elections which matter more than one might imagine from the limited press coverage, ie the 28 October election in the German state of Hesse and the 6 November gubernatorial elections in the US. 
 
Top marks if you can identify the woman in the photo who – spoiler alert – could be Chancellor of Germany in just a few weeks time.
 
 

“It’s the Evangelicals, Stupid!”

On 23 October, Alastair published the seventh in my series of vignettes for ‘The Global Lead’ reflecting on why Donald Trump, campaigning for his party in the midterms, is focusing more on the evangelicals than the economy – and why, whatever the outcome, he is right to do so.

https://mavenroundtable.io/globallead/politics/much-ado-about-everything-no-7-it-s-the-evangelicals-stupid-dIoorKwN6EC6xNQFffsLdQ/

Conservation in Mozambique

Benguerra Island In mid-October, we made a 10-day visit to Mozambique where we had the opportunity to take a first-hand look at the impressive conservation work of both African Parks (in Bazaruto National Park; https://www.africanparks.org/index.php/the-parks/bazaruto) and the Carr Foundation (in Gorongosa National Park; http://www.gorongosa.org/our-story/our-team/greg-carr) – including, in the case of the latter in particular, associated social development programmes. We also had an initial informal exchange about possible Rainforest Trust engagement in Zambia, which relates back to our September visit to Mwinilunga (http://www.alavan.biz/?s=kalahari&submit=Search) and the possibility of launching community conservation projects there. Several strands of follow up are in hand.
 
 
 

Political Risk Vignettes

In the past couple of weeks Alastair has published four more short pieces on political risk in The Global Lead examining the Brazilian and Indian elections, Brexit, oil (which also featured in Arab Digest) and US/China relations.
 
 
 
 

“Much Ado About Everything No 2: Mueller Matters Too”

So to my second vignette for The Global Lead. I doubt there is any argument other than that the Mueller investigation matters; but I nevertheless think it worth dissecting why it (and, on a minor but related diversion, the Kavanaugh confirmation) matters to the outcome of the now imminent midterms and what could happen thereafter.

https://mavenroundtable.io/globallead/politics/much-ado-about-everything-no-2-mueller-matters-too-RGKDRoH0J0StE0-05WIHKQ/

“Much Ado About Everything”

Throughout his 15-year career as a political analyst, one of Alastair’s consistent aims has been to sort the proverbial wheat from the chaff in the daily news flow for the benefit of his clients. As the 24/7 media becomes increasingly frenzied – and the US has in the White House a President who, by Alastair’s assessment, is an outstanding media manipulator – this is becoming both increasingly hard and increasingly important.
 
On 16 September, Alastair therefore launched a new series on The Global Lead entitled ‘Much Ado About Everything’ with precisely this objective in mind. The first article, hyperlinked here, looks at the implications of Paul Manafort’s ‘flip’.
 
 
Much Ado About Everything