Donald Trump: Doubling Down Dangerously

On 28 November, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair looking at Trump-derived political risk between now and the 2020 elections in the US with special reference to China/US relations (including trade) and Iran/oil.

“It’s the Evangelicals, Stupid!”

On 23 October, Alastair published the seventh in my series of vignettes for ‘The Global Lead’ reflecting on why Donald Trump, campaigning for his party in the midterms, is focusing more on the evangelicals than the economy – and why, whatever the outcome, he is right to do so.

Political Risk Vignettes

In the past couple of weeks Alastair has published four more short pieces on political risk in The Global Lead examining the Brazilian and Indian elections, Brexit, oil (which also featured in Arab Digest) and US/China relations.

“Much Ado About Everything No 2: Mueller Matters Too”

So to my second vignette for The Global Lead. I doubt there is any argument other than that the Mueller investigation matters; but I nevertheless think it worth dissecting why it (and, on a minor but related diversion, the Kavanaugh confirmation) matters to the outcome of the now imminent midterms and what could happen thereafter.

“Much Ado About Everything”

Throughout his 15-year career as a political analyst, one of Alastair’s consistent aims has been to sort the proverbial wheat from the chaff in the daily news flow for the benefit of his clients. As the 24/7 media becomes increasingly frenzied – and the US has in the White House a President who, by Alastair’s assessment, is an outstanding media manipulator – this is becoming both increasingly hard and increasingly important.
On 16 September, Alastair therefore launched a new series on The Global Lead entitled ‘Much Ado About Everything’ with precisely this objective in mind. The first article, hyperlinked here, looks at the implications of Paul Manafort’s ‘flip’.
Much Ado About Everything

Writings on political risk

The start of this month marked the first anniversary of Alastair’s debut as a contributor to the e-journal, ‘The Global Lead’. Since then, he has averaged one article per week. Th hyperlinks below go to a selection of recent contributions.
The Global Lead



Oil Supply, Trade Wars, Brexit and more.

Throughout February and early March Alastair published several articles discussing the growing global tensions. They are listed below.


On 14 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair on the potential threat in the Gulf region to global oil supplies.
On 21 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair reflecting on the Mueller investigation and Russia’s hybrid war against the West.
On 22 February, The Global Lead published an updated article by Alastair reflecting on developments on the Korean peninsula and their implications.
Also on 22 February, The Global Lead published an update by Alastair reflecting on growing trade tensions. 
On 26 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair reflecting on the scrapping of presidential term limits in China.
On 4 March, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair asking whether we are now in a ‘trade war’ and if not how likely it is that we are heading for one.
On 5 March, The Global Lead published an article on Brexit by Alastair complementing his 24 February one on the same subject.