Oil Supply, Trade Wars, Brexit and more.

Throughout February and early March Alastair published several articles discussing the growing global tensions. They are listed below.

 

On 14 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair on the potential threat in the Gulf region to global oil supplies.
 
On 21 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair reflecting on the Mueller investigation and Russia’s hybrid war against the West.
 
On 22 February, The Global Lead published an updated article by Alastair reflecting on developments on the Korean peninsula and their implications.
 
Also on 22 February, The Global Lead published an update by Alastair reflecting on growing trade tensions. 
 
On 26 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair reflecting on the scrapping of presidential term limits in China.
 
On 4 March, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair asking whether we are now in a ‘trade war’ and if not how likely it is that we are heading for one.
 
On 5 March, The Global Lead published an article on Brexit by Alastair complementing his 24 February one on the same subject.
 
 

Kim cals the shots

On 2 January, The Global Lead published Alastair’s thoughts on recent developments on the Korean peninsula.
 
 

Political and Geopolitical Risk

On 24 August, Alavan Business Advisory Limited began a third 12-month consultancy contract with Nomura International under the terms of which we shall continue to advise Nomura and its clients worldwide on political and geopolitical risk.
 

Recent Publications – June ’17

The new neocons and the Middle East

On 20 April, Global Policy and Arab Digest, two journals with which Alastair is associated, jointly published the hyperlinked article which is the latest chapter in a forthcoming e-book ‘The Future of the Middle East’, issuing initially in installments. In it, Alastair argues, with special reference to the Middle East, that there are some parallels between what seems to be happening presently inside the Trump Administration and the shifting dynamics inside the Administration of George W Bush which led to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

http://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/20/04/2017/new-neocons-and-middle-east

More on North Korea

On 5 April 2017, Global Policy published Alastair’s latest thoughts on tensions on the Korean peninsula and possible forward trajectories there — http://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/05/04/2017/north-korea-us-unilateral-action-or-deeper-sino-us-cooperation. Alastair argued that, although the military option against North Korea cannot be ruled out, it looked unlikely to be pursued by the US for now. Rather, more sanctions and, possibly, diplomacy appear to be the more immediate prospects.