Populism and the EP elections

On 14 January ‘The Global Lead’ published a detailed analysis of the state of populism in Europe today and its potential impact on May’s European Parliamentary elections and beyond.


Announcing the Alavan Independent Facebook page

The political risk analysis part of Alavan is in the process of going through some changes this year in terms of the way in which our service is delivered. These will be rolled out in the coming weeks when we shall be writing and speaking direct to clients.

One early step has occurred today, ie the creation of an ‘Alavan Independent’ Facebook page, which will, from here on, be where we post on political and geopolitical issues as far as social media are concerned.

The page will concentrate on brief and speedy comment on topical happenings – and how they are reported in the mainstream media. It goes without saying that comment on and discussion of such events is greatly welcomed.
So, if you are interested in seeing/continuing to see the sort of political commentary we have to date been posting on Alastair’s personal page, please sign up to follow Alavan Independent.



Political Risk Vignettes

In the past couple of weeks Alastair has published four more short pieces on political risk in The Global Lead examining the Brazilian and Indian elections, Brexit, oil (which also featured in Arab Digest) and US/China relations.

“Much Ado About Everything”

Throughout his 15-year career as a political analyst, one of Alastair’s consistent aims has been to sort the proverbial wheat from the chaff in the daily news flow for the benefit of his clients. As the 24/7 media becomes increasingly frenzied – and the US has in the White House a President who, by Alastair’s assessment, is an outstanding media manipulator – this is becoming both increasingly hard and increasingly important.
On 16 September, Alastair therefore launched a new series on The Global Lead entitled ‘Much Ado About Everything’ with precisely this objective in mind. The first article, hyperlinked here, looks at the implications of Paul Manafort’s ‘flip’.
Much Ado About Everything

Oil Supply, Trade Wars, Brexit and more.

Throughout February and early March Alastair published several articles discussing the growing global tensions. They are listed below.


On 14 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair on the potential threat in the Gulf region to global oil supplies.
On 21 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair reflecting on the Mueller investigation and Russia’s hybrid war against the West.
On 22 February, The Global Lead published an updated article by Alastair reflecting on developments on the Korean peninsula and their implications.
Also on 22 February, The Global Lead published an update by Alastair reflecting on growing trade tensions. 
On 26 February, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair reflecting on the scrapping of presidential term limits in China.
On 4 March, The Global Lead published an article by Alastair asking whether we are now in a ‘trade war’ and if not how likely it is that we are heading for one.
On 5 March, The Global Lead published an article on Brexit by Alastair complementing his 24 February one on the same subject.

Kim cals the shots

On 2 January, The Global Lead published Alastair’s thoughts on recent developments on the Korean peninsula.